Stuart_Armstrong comments on Contrarianism and reference class forecasting - Less Wrong

26 Post author: taw 25 November 2009 07:41PM

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Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 30 November 2009 02:42:55PM 0 points [-]

or true in only the most restricted way, far more restricted than what was claimed

That's exactly my position. Doomesday predictions are combinations of reasonable science and unwaranted conclusions. They're like the mirror image of homeopathy, which has wild craziness leading to a partially correct conculsion: "take this pill, and you'll feel better".