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gwern comments on Contrarianism and reference class forecasting - Less Wrong
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To downvoters: It is customary to explain unobvious downvotes. I've just demonstrated with multiple references that both of the top human killers on the second most populated continent in the world are larger than humans, and they are herbivores to boot. This would seem, to me anyway, to argue pretty decisively against Armak's theory that carnivores are more dangerous than large animals.
I didn't downvote you, but the example didn't seem to contradict the claim, which was:
Being hurt =/= being killed. Even in Africa, I'm sure people get scratched by housecats or bitten by dogs sometimes, and I don't think so many people are attacked (fatally or no) by hippos that hippos are more likely to hurt any given person than small carnivores. (Heck, if we count mosquitoes...) DanArmak's point seems to be that large animals are mostly avoidable if you want to avoid them. Small carnivores are not necessarily as easy to avoid.
Literally read, 'hurt' doesn't mean being killed. But look at the examples Dan was using: tigers, snakes, leopards, lions. Is it unreasonable to infer that he was really talking about mortal dangers & hurts?