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David_J_Balan comments on Rooting Hard for Overpriced M&Ms - Less Wrong
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Oops, the above should be, "total wealth differences in the region of $4", not "total bank account wealth differences". Hm. This is an interesting problem in approximate rationality - if your estimate of "bank account + wallet" and "bank account" is pretty much the same total number, and you learn how much money is in your wallet, what have you learned?
It seems to me like you've learned only how much what's actually in your wallet deviated from your best guess about what was in there. If non-wallet wealth effects can be safely ignored, then learning of an $X dollar deviation can be taken as a shock of that size to your total wealth.