Eliezer, it makes me nervous when my behavior or reasoning differs from the vast majority of human beings. Surely that's a reasonable concern?
On this planet? No. On this planet, I think you're better off just worrying about the object-level state of the evidence. Your visceral nervousness has nothing to do with Aumann. It is conformity.
Knowing that people are crazy and the world is mad helps a bit, but not too much because people who are even crazier than average probably explain their disagreements with the world in exactly this way.
What do you care what people who are crazier than average do? You already have enough information to know you're not one of them. You care what these people do, not because you really truly seriously think you might be one of them, but because of the gut-level, bone-deep fear of losing status by seeming to affiliate with a low-prestige group by saying something that sounds similar to what they say. You may be reluctant to admit that you know perfectly well you're not in this group, because that also sounds like something this low-prestige group would say; but in real life, you have enough info, you know you have enough info, and the thought has not seriously crossed your mind in a good long while, whatever your dutiful doubts of your foregone conclusion.
Seriously, just make the break, clean snap, over and done.
So, I'm inclined to try to find more detailed explanations of the differences. Is there any reason you can think of why that might be unproductive, or otherwise a bad idea?
Occam's Imaginary Razor. Spending lots of time on the meta-level explaining away what other people think is bad for your mental health.
You're wrong, Elizer. I am sure that I'm not crazier than average, and I'm not reluctant to admit that. But in order to disagree with most of the world, I have to have good reason to think that I'm more rational than everyone I disagree with, or have some other explanation that lets me ignore Aumann. The only reason I referred to people who are crazier than average is to explain why "people are crazy, the world is mad" is not one of those explanations.
...Spending lots of time on the meta-level explaining away what other people think is bad for you
Last summer, 15 Less Wrongers, under the auspices of SIAI, gathered in a big house in Santa Clara (in the SF bay area), with whiteboards, existential risk-reducing projects, and the ambition to learn and do.
Now, the new and better version has arrived. We’re taking folks on a rolling basis to come join in our projects, learn and strategize with us, and consider long term life paths. Working with this crowd transformed my world; it felt like I was learning to think. I wouldn’t be surprised if it can transform yours.
A representative sample of current projects:
Interested, but not sure whether to apply?
Past experience indicates that more than one brilliant, capable person refrained from contacting SIAI, because they weren’t sure they were “good enough”. That kind of timidity destroys the world, by failing to save it. So if that’s your situation, send us an email. Let us be the one to say “no”. Glancing at an extra application is cheap, and losing out on a capable applicant is expensive.
And if you’re seriously interested in risk reduction but at a later time, or in another capacity -- send us an email anyway. Coordinated groups accomplish more than uncoordinated groups; and if you care about risk reduction, we want to know.
What we’re looking for
At bottom, we’re looking for anyone who:
Bonus points for any (you don’t need them all) of the following traits:
If you think this might be you, send a quick email to jasen@intelligence.org. Include:
Our application process is fairly informal, so send us a quick email as initial inquiry and we can decide whether or not to follow up with more application components.
As to logistics: we cover room, board, and, if you need it, airfare, but no other stipend.
Looking forward to hearing from you,
Anna
ETA (as of 3/25/10): We are still accepting applications, for summer and in general. Also, you may wish to check out http://www.singinst.org/grants/challenge#grantproposals for a list of some current projects.