The following is a particular take on the future, hopefully demonstrating a realistic path for uploads occurring before AGI.
Imagine a high fidelity emulation of a small mammal brain (on the order of 1 g) is demonstrated, running at about 1/1000th real time. The computational demand for such a code is roughly a million times less than for emulating a human brain in real time.
Such a demonstration would give immense credibility to whole brain emulations, even of humans. It's not unlikely that the military would be willing to suddenly throw billions into WBE research. That is, the military isn't without imagination, and once the potential for human brain emulation has been shown, it's easy to see the incredible ramifications they would bring.
The big unknown would be how much optimization could be made to the small brain uploads. If we can't optimize the emulations' code, then the only path to human uploads would be through Moore's law, which would take two decades: ample time for the neuroscience breakthroughs to impact AGI. If, on the other hand, the codes prove to allow large optimizations, then intense funding from the military could get us to human uploads in a matter of years, leaving very little time for AGI theory to catch up.
My own intuition is that the first whole brain emulations will allow for substantial room for optimization.
Last summer, 15 Less Wrongers, under the auspices of SIAI, gathered in a big house in Santa Clara (in the SF bay area), with whiteboards, existential risk-reducing projects, and the ambition to learn and do.
Now, the new and better version has arrived. We’re taking folks on a rolling basis to come join in our projects, learn and strategize with us, and consider long term life paths. Working with this crowd transformed my world; it felt like I was learning to think. I wouldn’t be surprised if it can transform yours.
A representative sample of current projects:
Interested, but not sure whether to apply?
Past experience indicates that more than one brilliant, capable person refrained from contacting SIAI, because they weren’t sure they were “good enough”. That kind of timidity destroys the world, by failing to save it. So if that’s your situation, send us an email. Let us be the one to say “no”. Glancing at an extra application is cheap, and losing out on a capable applicant is expensive.
And if you’re seriously interested in risk reduction but at a later time, or in another capacity -- send us an email anyway. Coordinated groups accomplish more than uncoordinated groups; and if you care about risk reduction, we want to know.
What we’re looking for
At bottom, we’re looking for anyone who:
Bonus points for any (you don’t need them all) of the following traits:
If you think this might be you, send a quick email to jasen@intelligence.org. Include:
Our application process is fairly informal, so send us a quick email as initial inquiry and we can decide whether or not to follow up with more application components.
As to logistics: we cover room, board, and, if you need it, airfare, but no other stipend.
Looking forward to hearing from you,
Anna
ETA (as of 3/25/10): We are still accepting applications, for summer and in general. Also, you may wish to check out http://www.singinst.org/grants/challenge#grantproposals for a list of some current projects.