Reminds me of Kevin Kelly's The Maes-Garreau Point:
"Nonetheless, her colleagues really, seriously expected this bridge to immortality to appear soon. How soon? Well, curiously, the dates they predicted for the Singularity seem to cluster right before the years they were expected to die. Isn’t that a coincidence?"
Possibly the most single disturbing bias-related essay I've read, because I realized as I was reading it that my own uploading prediction was very close to my expected lifespan (based on my family history) - only 10 or 20 years past my death. It surprises me sometimes that no one else on LW/OB seems to've heard of Kelly's Maes-Garreau Point.
It's an interesting methodology, but the Maes-Garreau data is just terrible quality. For every person I know on that list, the attached point estimate is misleading to grossly misleading. For instance, it gives Nick Bostrom as predicting a Singularity in 2004, when Bostrom actually gives a broad probability distribution over the 21st century, with much probability mass beyond it as well. 2004 is in no way a good representative statistic of that distribution, and someone who had read his papers on the subject or emailed him could easily find that out. The Y...
Last summer, 15 Less Wrongers, under the auspices of SIAI, gathered in a big house in Santa Clara (in the SF bay area), with whiteboards, existential risk-reducing projects, and the ambition to learn and do.
Now, the new and better version has arrived. We’re taking folks on a rolling basis to come join in our projects, learn and strategize with us, and consider long term life paths. Working with this crowd transformed my world; it felt like I was learning to think. I wouldn’t be surprised if it can transform yours.
A representative sample of current projects:
Interested, but not sure whether to apply?
Past experience indicates that more than one brilliant, capable person refrained from contacting SIAI, because they weren’t sure they were “good enough”. That kind of timidity destroys the world, by failing to save it. So if that’s your situation, send us an email. Let us be the one to say “no”. Glancing at an extra application is cheap, and losing out on a capable applicant is expensive.
And if you’re seriously interested in risk reduction but at a later time, or in another capacity -- send us an email anyway. Coordinated groups accomplish more than uncoordinated groups; and if you care about risk reduction, we want to know.
What we’re looking for
At bottom, we’re looking for anyone who:
Bonus points for any (you don’t need them all) of the following traits:
If you think this might be you, send a quick email to jasen@intelligence.org. Include:
Our application process is fairly informal, so send us a quick email as initial inquiry and we can decide whether or not to follow up with more application components.
As to logistics: we cover room, board, and, if you need it, airfare, but no other stipend.
Looking forward to hearing from you,
Anna
ETA (as of 3/25/10): We are still accepting applications, for summer and in general. Also, you may wish to check out http://www.singinst.org/grants/challenge#grantproposals for a list of some current projects.