mattnewport comments on Call for new SIAI Visiting Fellows, on a rolling basis - Less Wrong

29 Post author: AnnaSalamon 01 December 2009 01:42AM

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Comment author: mattnewport 10 December 2009 12:28:03AM 0 points [-]

Kelly doesn't give references for the dates he cites as predictions for the singularity. Did Eliezer really predict at some point that the singularity would occur in 2005? That sounds unlikely to me.

Comment author: mattnewport 10 December 2009 12:31:15AM *  2 points [-]

Hmm, I found this quote on Google:

A few years back I would have said 2005 to 2020. I got this estimate by taking my real guess at the Singularity, which was around 2008 to 2015, and moving the dates outward until it didn't seem very likely that the Singularity would occur before then or after then.

Seems to me that Kelly didn't really interpret the prediction entirely reasonably (picking the earlier date) but the later date would not disconfirm his theory either.

Comment author: Zack_M_Davis 10 December 2009 12:54:18AM *  2 points [-]

Did Eliezer really predict at some point that the singularity would occur in 2005? That sounds unlikely to me.

Eliezer has disavowed many of his old writings:

I’ve been online since a rather young age. You should regard anything from 2001 or earlier as having been written by a different person who also happens to be named “Eliezer Yudkowsky”. I do not share his opinions.

But re the 2005 listing, cf. the now-obsolete "Staring Into the Singularity" (2001):

I do not "project" when the Singularity will occur. I have a "target date". I would like the Singularity to occur in 2005, which I think I would have a reasonable chance of doing via AI if someone handed me a hundred million dollars a year. The Singularity Institute would like to finish up in 2008 or so.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 10 December 2009 01:26:57AM 3 points [-]

Doesn't sound much like the Eliezer you know, does it...

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