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gwern comments on Call for new SIAI Visiting Fellows, on a rolling basis - Less Wrong
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1) Among those sampled, the young do not seem to systematically predict a later Singularity.
2) People do update their estimates based on incremental data (as they should), so we distinguish between estimated dates, and estimated time-from-present.
2a) A lot of people burned by the 1980s AI bubble shifted both of those into the future.
3) A lot of AI folk with experience from that bubble have a strong taboo against making predictions for fear of harming the field by raising expectations. This skews the log of public predictions.
4) Younger people working on AGI (like Shane Legg, Google's Moshe Looks) are a self-selected group and tend to think that it is relatively close (within decades,and their careers).
5) Random smart folk, not working on AI (physicists, philosophers, economists), of varied ages, tend to put broad distributions on AGI development with central tendencies in the mid-21st century.
Is there any chance of the actual data or writeups being released? It's been almost 3 years now.
Lukeprog has a big spreadsheet. I don't know his plans for it.
Hm... I wonder if that's the big spreadsheet ksotala has been working on for a while?
Yes. An improved version of the spreadsheet, which serves as the data set for Stuart's recent writeup, will probably be released when the Stuart+Kaj paper is published, or perhaps earlier.