I think we are arguing past each other, but it's about interpreting someone else so I'm not that worried about it. I'll add one more bullet to your list to clarify what I think Tyler is saying. If that doesn't resolve it, oh well.

• If we know with certainty that the secenario that Tyler described is true, that is if we know that the scientists fudged things because they knew that AGW was real and that the consequences were worth risking their reputations on, then Climategate has a Bayes factor above 1.

I don't think Tyler was saying anything more than that. (Well, and P(his scenario) is non-negligible)