Douglas_Knight comments on Open Thread: December 2009 - Less Wrong

3 Post author: CannibalSmith 01 December 2009 04:25PM

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Comment author: Douglas_Knight 13 December 2009 07:43:25PM 1 point [-]

An independent piece of evidence moves the log-odds a constant additive amount regardless of the prior. Averaging log-odds amounts to moving 2/3 of that distance if 2/3 of the people have the particular piece of evidence. It may behave badly if the evidence is not independent, but if all you have are posteriors, I think it's the best you can do.