= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
ChristianKl comments on 11 core rationalist skills - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (33)
Actually make written down predictions about the future. If you don't make real written down predictions you will never know how bad you are at predicting the world around you.
It's not really that there's much time involved.
Let's say you are waiting in line in the supermarket to pay. It costs you no additional time to take a paper and note down an estimated amount of money that you have to pay.
It's probably rather like quiting smoking. Going through life while being fuzzy about your expectations is just easier than making predictions.
However all that talk about cognitive biases doesn't do much when you just gather knowledge but don't change any of your deep seated habits.