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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Intuitive supergoal uncertainty - Less Wrong
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Comments (27)
Can you give a reference? Because that strikes me as rather un-Jaynesian.
You say that the interval tells us something about how apt the estimate is to move in the face of new evidence. What does it tell us about that? Doesn't it depend on which piece of evidence we're talking about? Do you have to specify a prior over which variables you are likely to observe next?
Second the question, it doesn't sound Jaynesian to me either.
I'm relieved that I'm not the only one who thought that. I was somewhat aghast to hear Jaynes recommend something that is so, well, obviously a bull@# hack.
It's curious to me that you'd write this even after I cited chapter and verse. Do you have a copy of PT:LOS?
I do have a copy but I will take your word for it. I am shocked and amazed that Jayenes would give such a poor recommendation. It doesn't sound Jaynesian to me either and I rather hope he presents a variant that is sufficiently altered as to not be this suggestion at all. You yourself gave the reason why it doesn't work and I am sure there is a better approach than just hacking the scale when it is near 1 or 0. (I am hoping your paraphrase sounds worse than the original.)
Best to give a probabilty density function - but two 2-S-F probabilites typically gives more information than one.