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timtyler comments on Intuitive supergoal uncertainty - Less Wrong
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Comments (27)
Can you give a reference? Because that strikes me as rather un-Jaynesian.
You say that the interval tells us something about how apt the estimate is to move in the face of new evidence. What does it tell us about that? Doesn't it depend on which piece of evidence we're talking about? Do you have to specify a prior over which variables you are likely to observe next?
It is good to indicate the strength of your priors. Perhaps one could indicate how much you think your opinion is likely to change over some specified timescale - or in response to the next set of pertinent data points.