smoofra comments on Arbitrage of prediction markets - Less Wrong

6 Post author: taw 04 December 2009 10:29PM

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Comment author: smoofra 04 December 2009 11:39:46PM 4 points [-]

But if results depend on my ability to convince rich people, that's not prediction market!

what!? Why not?

Comment author: gwern 05 December 2009 05:44:31PM 1 point [-]

Suppose the situation were that taw could make bets on the terms he wishes for - but only if he can convince 5 out of 9 rich people. How is this a market, and not some sort of bizarre committee or bureaucracy?

Comment author: smoofra 07 December 2009 06:01:16PM 2 points [-]

If I think I know a more efficient way to make a widget, I still need to convince somebody to put up the capital for my new widget factory.