bgrah449 comments on Arbitrage of prediction markets - Less Wrong

6 Post author: taw 04 December 2009 10:29PM

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Comment author: Blueberry 04 December 2009 11:19:38PM *  8 points [-]

Find another prediction market, or another person, willing to make the bet with you at the true (1%, say) odds. Then you buy one and hedge by selling the other. Arbitrage usually requires two different bets.

For instance, if you sell the Intrade prediction, but make a $1 bet at 99:1 odds that Paul will win the Republican nomination (god forbid), you win $3.50 - $1.00 when Paul loses, and $99.00 - $96.50 when he wins.

[Edited to fix math]

Comment author: bgrah449 05 December 2009 03:46:32AM 1 point [-]

Arbitrage always requires more than one bet, but it usually requires more than two bets.