Not likely, but I thought I'd point out that I've been black-swanned on Intrade already. I bet on there being 50,000 swine flue cases by June 30, but then about a week before that deadline the CDC made a decision to stop updating its totals, pausing the count at a little under 50,000.

Even though the bet was written so that the CDC numbers were just being used as "best available", Intrade decided at that point that those numbers would define the bet. So even though all other counts settled on a number well above 50,000 by June 30, the CDC was considered official and I lost the bet.