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Jack comments on Parapsychology: the control group for science - Less Wrong
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Huh? "Metaphysics" refers to an incredibly wide variety of claims. But I'd say that metaphysics tries to answer questions about reality that aren't the kind of questions that can be answered by experimental science. Since we lack a good method for answering these questions our confidence in metaphysical claims is usually substantially lower than it is for empirical claims. But why should we think all metaphysical questions are radically different from scientific questions such that the answer to one can't influence our estimations of the other? Of hand I can't think of a number of metaphysical hypotheses that have been greatly effected by scientific knowledge and vice versa-- materialism, substance dualism, determinism and indeterminism, free will, eternalism and philosophies of time etc.
In this case it seems rather obvious that if we are "living in the Matrix" the probability that the basic laws of physics are complicated rather than simple is dramatically higher.
I never denied that a our assessment of an empirical claim may be influenced by the metaphysical views we hold. I simply noted that, once the Matrix hypothesis is understood as a metaphysical hypothesis, it is unclear why believing that we live in the Matrix should increase our credence in the various claims of parapsychology.
I have no idea what your argument actually is. Why does it matter whether or not the Matrix hypothesis is a metaphysical hypothesis?
My original comment was a reply to Mitchell Porter, who suggested that parapsychology would somehow receive support from the Matrix hypothesis. I replied by saying that this would not be true, or at least not clearly, if that hypothesis is understood as a claim about the ultimate nature of reality.
To take another example, suppose someone argued Berkeleyan idealists should be more open to psychic phenomena, since we are all ideas in the mind of God. I would reply that this is not so, since the fact that the world is ultimately made of mind has in itself no implications about whether certain kinds of mental phenomena take place within that world.
The ability of certain collections of atoms to communicate large amounts of information to other collections of atoms over vast distances without there being any detectable emissions is an incredibly complex power. Complex entities are a priori improbable compared to simple entities. You need some kind of creation mechanism to make them probable... with biological systems we have evolution, with pocket watches and jet planes you have human inventors. If you accept a metaphysical hypothesis that involves an intelligence creating the universe-- programmers or God-- you have a mechanism for making complex entities probable. That is why the Matrix hypothesis makes psychic phenomena more likely
This remains the case no matter what the universe is made of. All evidence suggests that psychic mechanisms are not available to us in our current mode of existence, whatever that may be. That evidence doesn't change until you get more.
At least, that seems to me to be the point ben is making.
Yes, but not no matter how the universe was created. The Matrix hypothesis includes a claim that the universe was created by some intelligence and that makes psychic phenomena substantially more plausible.
That doesn't mean all religious people have to believe in psychic phenomena or even that they should. If there is no evidence for psychic phenomena then there is not evidence for psychic phenomena. But if you think the universe was created claims of psychic phenomena should be less absurd on their face.
Another position that could be taken is "the evidence suggests that if we are living in a matrix scenario then it is probably one of the ones without matrix psychic powers". That is, assuming rational reasoning without granting a counter-factual premise. The evidence can then be considered to have a fixed effect on the probability of psychic powers. Whether it causes you to also lower your probability for a Matrix or to alter your description of probable Matrix type would be considered immaterial.
Again, this is just what my impression of Ben's position. He'll correct me if I'm wrong. For my part I don't care about Matrixes (especially No. 2. I walked out of that one in disgust! Actually, I do care about the 'dodge this!' line. It's infuriating.)
This all started when Michell Porter responded to Blueberry's claim that we know, intuitively, that psychic phenomena are just not possible. I'm not quite sure I know just what Blueberry was talking about. But his estimate of the existence of psychic phenomena was zero and not just because of parapsychology's failure to provide convincing evidence but because of our understanding of the world. Mitchell provides Blueberry with a hypothesis that is consistent with what we know about the world but under which the existence of psychic phenomena is not prohibitively improbable.
None of this changes the fact that finding evidence of psychic phenomenon should cause us to revise our probabilities of its existence up and that non finding evidence should cause us to revise our probabilities down. But if your probability is zero, and especially if your probability is zero for reasons other than the failure of parapsychology, a hypothesis with P>0 where P(psi) is >0 looks like information you needs to update on.
Ben says it isn't clear why this is so. Well creation makes complex, unselected entities more probable. But maybe I should wait to have this argument with him.
As far as the movie goes, it is all downhill right after Neo wakes up gooey pink tub and sees all the other people hooked into the Matrix. The whole movie should have taken place in the Matrix and kept us in the dark about what it really was until the very end. Would have been way cooler that way.
Once your probability is zero is it even possible to update away? That'd more be 'completely discarding your entire understanding of the universe for reasons that cannot be modelled within that understanding'. If something is impossible then something else, no matter how unlikely, must be the truth. This includes the hypothesis "every thought I have that suggests the p(0) hypothesis must be true is the product of cosmic rays messing with my brain."