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roystgnr comments on Parapsychology: the control group for science - Less Wrong

62 Post author: AllanCrossman 05 December 2009 10:50PM

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Comment author: roystgnr 09 February 2012 06:52:49PM 7 points [-]

A nitpick: it takes 332 pieces of all mutually independent evidence to perform that level of update.

More confusing, for these purposes the independence level of the evidence depends on what hypotheses you're trying to distinguish with it. E.g. if you're trying to distinguish between "that subject has ESP powers" and "that experiment was random luck" then 332 repetitions of the same experiment will do. If you're trying to distinguish between "that subject has ESP powers" and "that experimenter's facial expressions differ based on what cards he was looking at", then you can't just repeat it; you've got to devise new and different experiments.