timtyler comments on Probability Space & Aumann Agreement - Less Wrong

34 Post author: Wei_Dai 10 December 2009 09:57PM

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Comment author: timtyler 18 December 2009 10:09:06AM 1 point [-]

Of course the agent space you end up in, has certain properties - but the issue is whether those properties necessarily involve sharing the truth with others.

I figure you can pursue any goal using Bayesian statistics - including goals that include attempting to deceive and mislead others.

For example, a Bayesian public relations officer for big tobacco would not be bound to agree with other agents that she met.

Comment author: aausch 19 December 2009 03:29:18PM 0 points [-]

You're speaking of Bayesian agents as a general term to refer to anyone who happens to use Bayesian statistics for a specific purpose - and in that context, I agree with you. In that context, your statements are correct, by definition.

I am speaking of Bayesian agents using the idealized, Hollywood concept of agent. Maybe I should have been more specific and referred to super-agents, equivalent to super-spies.

I claim that someone who has lived and breathed the Bayes way will be significantly different than someone who has applied it, even very consistently, within a limited domain. For example, I can imagine a Bayesian super-agent working for big tobacco, but I see the probability of that event actually coming to pass as too small to be worth considering.

Comment author: timtyler 19 December 2009 04:16:28PM *  1 point [-]

I don't really know what you mean. A "super agent"? Do you really think Bayesian agents are "good"?

Since you haven't really said what you mean, what do you mean? What are these "super agents" of which you speak? Would you know one if you met one?

Comment author: aausch 20 December 2009 05:24:20AM 0 points [-]

Super-agent. You know, like James Bond, Mr. and Ms. Smith. Closer to the use, in context - Jeffreyssai.

Comment author: timtyler 20 December 2009 10:47:33AM 0 points [-]

Right... So: how about Lex Luthor or General Zod?