Continuing my interest in tracking real-world predictions, I notice that the recent acquittal of Knox & Sollecito offers an interesting opportunity - specifically, many LessWrongers gave probabilities for guilt back in 2009 in komponisto’s 2 articles:

Both were interesting exercises, and it’s time to do a followup. Specifically, there are at least 3 new pieces of evidence to consider:

the failure of any damning or especially relevant evidence to surface in the ~2 years since (see also: the hope function)
the independent experts’ report on the DNA evidence
the freeing of Knox & Sollecito, and continued imprisonment of Rudy Guede (with reduced sentence)

Point 2 particularly struck me (the press attributes much of the acquittal to the expert report, an acquittal I had not expected to succeed), but other people may find the other 2 points or unmentioned news more weighty.

2 Probabilities

I was curious how the consensus has changed, and so, in some spare time, I summoned all the Conscientiousness I could and compiled the following list of 54 entries based on those 2 articles’ comments (sometimes inferring specific probabilities and possibly missing probabilities given in hidden subthreads), where people listed probabilities for Knox’s guilt, Sollecito’s guilt, and Guede’s guilt:

Knox	Sollecito	Guede	LWer
.20	.20	.70	badger
.05	.10	.90	mattnewport
.20	.25	.90	AngryParsley
.05	.05	.95	tut
.05	.05	.95	bentarm
.85	.60	.20	bgrah449
.01	.01	.99	kodos96
.01	.01	.99	Daniel_Burfoot
.40	.40	.90	nerzhin
.45	.45	.60	Matt_Simpson
.33	.33	.90	Cyan
.50	.50	.95	jimmy
.05	.05	.99	Psychohistorian
.40	.40	.90	Threads
.50	.50	.80	Morendil
.15	—	—	Eliezer_Yudkowsky
.20	.35	.98	LauraABJ
.10	.10	.90	curious
.20	.20	.96	jpet
.06	.06	.70	saliency
.80	.60	.95	Mario
.20	.20	.95	Yvain
.70	—	—	Shalmanese
.05	.05	.95	gelisam
.05	.05	.90	Mononofu
.90	.90	.90	lordweiner27 (changed mind)
.50	.50	.99	GreenRoot
.99	.99	.99	dilaudid
.13	.15	.97	Jack
.05	.05	.90	wedrifid
.01	.01	.90	Nanani
.35	.35	.95	imaxwell
.01	.01	.99	jenmarie
.25	.25	.75	Jawaka
.41	.38	.99	magfrump
.40	.20	.60	gwern
.08	.10

...