badger comments on You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event - Less Wrong

31 Post author: komponisto 09 December 2009 04:25AM

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Comment author: badger 09 December 2009 06:31:39AM *  1 point [-]

I have never heard of this case before this post. After approximately 30 minutes of reading the two sites you linked to as well as the Wikipedia article, my current estimates are:

  • Knox guilty: 0.35
  • Sollecito guilty: 0.35
  • Guede guilty: 0.80

I think your opinion will roughly coincide with mine about Guede, but could differ dramatically about the other two.

Comment author: badger 09 December 2009 10:17:14PM 1 point [-]

Update: After reading the other comments here, I'm revising to

  • Knox guilty: 0.20
  • Sollecito guilty: 0.20
  • Guede guilty: 0.70
  • None of the three: 0.20