I had heard a little about this case before you brought it up, but I didn't want to read about it since I figured I'd get angry about either: 1. Yet another travesty of justice. or: 2. Yet another obviously guilty person being cast in a good light. It was the former. Unrecorded interrogations without a lawyer. No forensic evidence putting Knox in the room. No motive, no sequestered jury, tons of disputes about forensics. What a mess.

Your probability estimate that Amanda Knox is guilty.

0.2

Your probability estimate that Raffaele Sollecito is guilty.

0.25

Your probability estimate that Rudy Guede is guilty.

0.9

How much you think your opinion will turn out to coincide with mine.

I think we'll be rather close. Basically, low probabilities for Knox and Sollecito, and a very high probability for Guede.