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AngryParsley comments on You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event - Less Wrong
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Page one of the site arguing defendants are guilty has nothing that would count as evidence for guilt. When I got to the bottom of the page and saw that there were 24 more pages, I lost patience for the exercise because the low quality of the argumentation on page one (most saliently, the picture of the vicitim when she was five, which if course is not evidence at all, but which will tend to evoke biased thinking in the reader) was a sign that the other 24 pages would be very sparse in actual evidence.
Aren't there enough opportunities for us to practice rationality such that we can check our answers to make it mostly a waste of time to assign probabilities to an event for which it will probably forever be impossible to know "the answer"?
If you are going to leave it up to the reader, you should at least tell us where on the 25 pages the strongest evidence is on the site arguing defendants are guilty.
I agree. A lot of the stuff on that site was just silly. It was mostly appeals to emotion and random stuff like (I'm paraphrasing), "A witness heard people running on some metal stairs, therefore the defendants are guilty!"
I think this is a test to see if we all come to the same conclusion in a case that stirs up a lot of emotions. If komponisto is Italian, he might have vastly different probability estimates than some of us Americans.