komponisto comments on You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event - Less Wrong

31 Post author: komponisto 09 December 2009 04:25AM

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Comment author: mattnewport 09 December 2009 07:32:16AM *  1 point [-]

I'm moderately familiar with the case (have read a few media articles on the case over the last few months).

  1. 10% (weak evidence, lack of motive, low prior probability of female on female sexually motivated violence)
  2. 30% (evidence not much better, higher prior probability of male on female sexually motivated violence)
  3. 50% (seems to fit profile of this type of offence, evidence of association with victim and opportunity and circumstantial evidence)
  4. I expect your relative rankings to be the same, less confidence in absolute probabilities.
  5. Fairly mainstream media sources, probably linked from blogs I read which will likely supply a selection bias, don't remember exactly what the sources were.
Comment author: komponisto 09 December 2009 08:20:39AM 0 points [-]

5.Fairly mainstream media sources, probably linked from blogs I read which will likely supply a selection bias, don't remember exactly what the sources were.

Do you happen to remember from what country or countries these sources were? (Obviously most stories about this case have been from the US, UK, or Italy -- with, according to some, significantly different biases among them.)

Comment author: mattnewport 09 December 2009 09:05:09AM 1 point [-]

I believe at least one of the articles was in the New York Times. Most of the blogs I read would link to US or UK sources and any coverage I saw on TV would likely have been from BBC World or from US sources.

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