tut comments on You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event - Less Wrong

31 Post author: komponisto 09 December 2009 04:25AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Article Navigation

Comments (260)
Tags: survey biases calibration bayesian current_affairs

Comments (260)

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: tut 09 December 2009 08:59:51AM *  2 points [-]
  1. Your probability estimate that Amanda Knox is guilty.

5%. She was near the crime scene and doesn't have a coherent story about what she did that day. She might have bought bleach. Other than that they don't appear to have any evidence against her.

  1. Your probability estimate that Raffaele Sollecito is guilty.

5%

  1. Your probability estimate that Rudy Guede is guilty.

95%. Handprints in blood. His blood mixed with the victims. His "DNA" "inside" the victim. If he is not guilty then he was framed in a quite advanced manner. And in that case I'd expect him to have something to say about how they got his blood and handprints.

  1. How much you think your opinion will turn out to coincide with mine.

Probably quite similar.

Powered by Reddit Powered by Reddit