Matt_Simpson comments on You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event - Less Wrong

31 Post author: komponisto 09 December 2009 04:25AM

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Comment author: Matt_Simpson 09 December 2009 05:57:28PM *  3 points [-]

Just skimmed the two sites. First:

  1. Your probability estimate that Amanda Knox is guilty.
  2. Your probability estimate that Raffaele Sollecito is guilty.
  3. Your probability estimate that Rudy Guede is guilty.
  4. How much you think your opinion will turn out to coincide with mine
  1. p = .45
  2. p = .45
  3. p = .60
  4. We probably agree on which side of .5 these numbers should be, i suspect you are far more confident, which is perhaps understandable if you have a better understanding of the evidence

It's hard to be very confident after skimming for 30-40min. I don't have the expertise or the time to verify many of the statements made by either side, especially DNA evidence and the like, but the prosecution looks pretty weak. The DNA evidence against the defense doesn't seem to hold up, and the fact that the defendant's stories are inconsistent over time show that they have the memory of, well, humans.

I should also mention that I probably have a bias for the defense in cases like this.

Comment author: komponisto 09 December 2009 06:38:31PM *  1 point [-]

I should also mention that I probably have a bias for the defense in cases like this.

Any thoughts on why that might be the case?

Comment author: Matt_Simpson 09 December 2009 07:45:26PM 1 point [-]

I'm more or less a libertarian.