I was totally unfamiliar with the case. My assessment is based on ~30 minutes of reading the pro-prosecution site and ~5 minutes of reading the pro-defense site.

1. My probability estimate that Amanda Knox is guilty: 33%.
2. My probability estimate that Raffaele Sollecito is guilty: 33%.
3. My probability estimate that Rudy Guédé is guilty: 90%.
4. How much I think my opinion will turn out to coincide with yours: same direction, mine less extreme.

For me, the red flag was the way Guédé replaced Lumumba in the prosecution's theory of the crime. An investigation in which suspects are hot-swappable does not inspire confidence.

The reasoning on the pro-prosecution site did not impress, e.g., the fact that Knox did not participate in a program for exchange students at the University of Washington is taken as evidence speaking to her character, specifically, of her desire to be free of social constraints.