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curious comments on You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event - Less Wrong
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Comments (260)
ak guilty: 0.1
rs guilty: 0.1
rg guilty: 0.9
assessment of my opinion vs poster's opinion: can't guess at your actual probabilities, but probability similar general take identifying guede as vastly more likely to be guilty than the other two.
sources: small number (i estimate <5) of media stories covering the case that i've seen over recent months plus the wikipedia article as it read at a little after 4 pm today.