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mattnewport comments on You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event - Less Wrong
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I interpreted it as 'how would you vote if you were on the jury', which implies 'guilty beyond reasonable doubt' under the legal systems I'm familiar with. I don't know if the standard is any different in Italy.
I agree that that's one reasonable interpretation.
I just want to emphasize that that standard is very different than the weaker "if I had to guess, I would say that the person actually committed the crime." The first standard is higher. Also, the law might forbid you from considering certain facts/evidence, even if you know in the back of your mind that the evidence is there and suggestive. There are probably other differences between the standards that I'm not thinking of.