This was my first contact with this story. I still don't feel informed.

Wikipedia was the best of the resources. The site arguing defendants are guilty was the worst. My probabilities on Konx and Sollecito are "high" because I feel I still have not found an argument against them that was properly constructed. Before lowering my probability to 1% I would like to hear a better explanation of why the court found them guilty.

1. Your probability estimate that Amanda Knox is guilty. p = 6%
2. Your probability estimate that Raffaele Sollecito is guilty. p= 6%
3. Your probability estimate that Rudy Guede is guilty. p = 70%
4. How much you think your opinion will turn out to coincide with mine. p = 90% (That we both agree in direction; that RG is probably guilty. I expect your probabilities are higher though)

** Note that I leave plenty of probability for the possibility that none of the three are guilty.