I agree that that's one reasonable interpretation.

I just want to emphasize that that standard is very different than the weaker "if I had to guess, I would say that the person actually committed the crime." The first standard is higher. Also, the law might forbid you from considering certain facts/evidence, even if you know in the back of your mind that the evidence is there and suggestive. There are probably other differences between the standards that I'm not thinking of.