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RolfAndreassen comments on You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event - Less Wrong
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No opinion on the case, but I notice a lot of people are giving guilt probabilities that sum to well over 100%. Unless they are figuring in the options (two of these three are guilty) and (all three are guilty), this seems a bit off. Also, these options are apparently being given quite high implicit probabilities, sufficiently so that they should perhaps have been listed explicitly.
The Italian courts decided all three are guilty which immediately suggests that people are likely to be considering that possibility. Any combination of two of the three suspects is also plausible. There is no particular reason to expect people's probabilities to sum to 100%.
Ah so. Serves me right for not reading the provided links. :)