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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event - Less Wrong
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By guilty, do we mean "committed or significantly contributed to the murder"?
Or do we mean "committed or significantly contributed to the murder AND there is enough evidence showing that to satisfy the beyond-a-reasonable-doubt (or Italian equivalent) standard of proof for murder"?
The comments don't seem to make that distinction, but I think it could make a big difference.
probability = probability of having committed murder, not probability of sufficient evidence