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Shalmanese comments on You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event - Less Wrong
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my somewhat admittedly sketchy reasoning:
I go to the University of Washington where there is considerable interest in the case. Of the people who have only been marginally involved in the case, most believe that Amanda Knox is innocent. Of the people who are interested in the case, many believe she is guilty. There's an obvious hometown effect here which biases towards innocence so I'm assuming those who look into the case are taking that into account when and still reach a guilty verdict.
Therefore, I assign a 70% probability to Amanda Knox being guilty (+ or - 30%).
Given the information you're going on, that's not a bad estimate. Actually reading on the case may change your opinion dramatically, though; why not try it?