I don't mean to single you out particularly but your probabilities show a pattern common to several other commenters that I find surprising. What is your prior probability that a rape-murder would be committed by three people, a man and a woman who had been dating for a couple of weeks and a third man who was a stranger to both of them, rather than by a single man acting alone?

My prior probability for three people acting together like this would be extremely low. The fact that Knox and Sollecito had only been dating for a couple of weeks doesn't seem to be in dispute, nor does the fact that they did not previously associate with Guede. I'm surprised that people don't revise down their probability of Knox and Sollecito being guilty significantly if they believe Guede is guilty.