wedrifid comments on You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event - Less Wrong

31 Post author: komponisto 09 December 2009 04:25AM

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Comment author: wedrifid 10 December 2009 04:10:19AM 0 points [-]
  1. Your probability estimate that Amanda Knox is guilty.

0.05

  1. Your probability estimate that Raffaele Sollecito is guilty.

0.05

  1. Your probability estimate that Rudy Guede is guilty.

0.9

  1. How much you think your opinion will turn out to coincide with mine.

p(same direction) = 0.6

p(someone in the prosecution is guilty of actions I would give live imprisonment for) = 0.99.

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