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Nanani comments on You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event - Less Wrong
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Comments (260)
I attempted the test with zero familiarity with the case at hand. I also have very little knowledge of the Italian justice system.
One major problem in presenting a probability assessement is that the links presented in the post offer pratically no facts about the case. They are about a Washington Senator's reaction, instead. It would be ludicrous to answer the questions asked given only this information.
So, I went googling around for more information. I promptly hit a snag in that I do not what a fast-track trial is in the context of Italy, and searching for information on that is made very difficult since the search returns articles on the Kercher case.
Attempting to filter out all the extra fluff about the characters involved, the facts of the case, most especially the DNA, seems to point to Guede. There is no hard evidence supporting Knox's guilt, and Sollecito's DNA on the victim's bra is not suprising given their relationship.
Unless the links I read (mostly obtained via Wikipedia) managed to omit something important, I'd say the following:
Knox guilty: less than 0.1 Sollecito: 0.1 to 0.15 Guede: 0.9
You must have only looked at the front pages of the two sites. You have to browse around somewhat to find the information.
I suggest starting here on Friends of Amanda, and here on True Justice.
You should have sent the readers directly to that information, then. LW has thousands of readers, so putting in 10X work yourself to save thousands of readers X time is generally a good idea.
Well, as I said, the information is not all in one place (particularly on TJ; FoA is better organized), and I was worried about biasing readers via my selection of the first page to read. (In fact, as I indicated in the post, I was even somewhat worried about biasing readers via my selection of the sites themselves.)
Most of the commenters seem not to have had problems. For the few that did, I don't mind giving a little more direction to them individually.
What makes you think that Sollecito is more likely to be guilty than Knox, and possibly more than 15x likely? (Which is quite the difference.)
What likely scenarios are you envisioning that have Guede and Sollecito murdering her without Knox being involved? It seems to me that all the plausible or presented scenarios have Sollecito & Knox acting in concert or in some way covering up for the other, and so their guilts would be closely linked.
Simple. Sollecito's DNA was found there, but not Knox's. I think it highly unlikely that the DNA has any link to the actual murder, but its presence justifies an allowance of probability mass.
Less than 0.1 and 0.15 are both very low probabilities.
Ahhhh... 0.15 isn't 15x 0.1
It's probably justified simply by priors re male/female committing rape/murder
<0.1 includes values like 0.00000001, y'know. So technically I'm not wrong... But you're right, I saw .1 and .15 and forgot that that was 1.5x, not 15x. (That would require .01)