Just because they were intoxicated doesn't mean they shouldn't be able to tell us where they were. I have never been drunk enough in my entire life to not remember what house I slept at. Have you?
Intoxicated people as a rule have fuzzy and missing memories. I've definitely forgotten events when I've been drunk and I've had friends lose a couple hours of memory and wake up not knowing where they are. Maybe this isn't sufficient to explain the inconsistencies but it is once you combine it with scary, potentially abusive police yelling at and threatening them... well, I'd say some inaccurate testimony is to be expected.
That said I'm having trouble with their story of the morning the body was discovered.
So because the police were idiots and didn't record the interrogations that means they faked the evidence? What would be the police's motivation for faking the evidence?
Initially the police said they had lost the recording and later said they had never made one. In fact, they didn't even have a transcript of the the interrogation just a signed statement in flawless italian. These things "get lost" when the police realize the confession was coerced and won't hold up on appeal once people see the video tape. And are you really asking me why police would manufacture evidence to get a conviction? Like, are you kidding? If you want a motive unique to this case you might read the criticism of the Italian prosecutor. From the wikipedia page:
Mignini is currently under investigation for pursuit of bizarre and lurid psycho-sexual homicide theories in another Italian murder investigation, regarding a serial killer dubbed "The Monster of Florence." Criticism of Mignini's methods, accusations of mental instability and fascination with the occult have dogged him in the media and a senior Florentine minister has gone on the record stating his opinion that Mr Mignini had fallen "prey to a sort of delirium".
Evidence is held back for lots of reasons, doesn't didn't happen. It was on the wikipedia page so I'm taking it as fact.
It doesn't mean it didn't happen. It may have, I'm not convinced of their innocence. But the fact that it is on a contested wikipedia article is a terrible reason to take it as fact. Wikipedia is great for reading about the history of cheddar cheese, less so for answering questions about current, controversial and biasing events. Btw, did you really read the defense's site? Quoting:
Early in the trial, the prosecutor seemed to be aware that the washing machine was a matter of interest to people discussing the case on the Internet, because he made a point of asking several witnesses about it. But nothing of value emerged from these questions. Insiders have known for a long time that the police examined the contents of the washing machine and found nothing incriminating.
Finally:
However I can't invision reasonable argument against DNA evidence, unless there's evidence of a massive police conspiracy.
This was in the main section of the defense's site. Section 2.
As many of you probably know, in an Italian court early last weekend, two young students, Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito, were convicted of killing another young student, Meredith Kercher, in a horrific way in November of 2007. (A third person, Rudy Guede, was convicted earlier.)
If you aren't familiar with the case, don't go reading about it just yet. Hang on for just a moment.
If you are familiar, that's fine too. This post is addressed to readers of all levels of acquaintance with the story.
What everyone should know right away is that the verdict has been extremely controversial. Strong feelings have emerged, even involving national tensions (Knox is American, Sollecito Italian, and Kercher British, and the crime and trial took place in Italy). The circumstances of the crime involve sex. In short, the potential for serious rationality failures in coming to an opinion on a case like this is enormous.
Now, as it happens, I myself have an opinion. A rather strong one, in fact. Strong enough that I caught myself thinking that this case -- given all the controversy surrounding it -- might serve as a decent litmus test in judging the rationality skills of other people. Like religion, or evolution -- except less clichéd (and cached) and more down-and-dirty.
Of course, thoughts like that can be dangerous, as I quickly recognized. The danger of in-group affective spirals looms large. So before writing up that Less Wrong post adding my-opinion-on-the-guilt-or-innocence-of-Amanda-Knox-and-Raffaele-Sollecito to the List of Things Every Rational Person Must Believe, I decided it might be useful to find out what conclusion(s) other aspiring rationalists would (or have) come to (without knowing my opinion).
So that's what this post is: a survey/experiment, with fairly specific yet flexible instructions (which differ slightly depending on how much you know about the case already).
For those whose familiarity with the case is low:
I'm going to give you two websites advocating a position, one strongly in favor of the verdict, the other strongly opposed. Your job will be to browse around these sites to learn info about the case, as much as you need to in order to arrive at a judgment. The order, manner, and quantity of browsing will be left up to you -- though I would of course like to know how much you read in your response.
1. Site arguing defendants are guilty.
2. Site arguing defendants are innocent.
I've chosen these particular sites because they seemed to contain the best combination of fierceness of advocacy and quantity of information on their respective sides that I could find.
If you find better summaries, or think that these choices reflect a bias or betray my own opinion, by all means let me know. I'm specifically avoiding referring you to media reports, however, for a couple of reasons. First, I've noticed that reports often contain factual inaccuracies (necessarily, because they contradict each other). Secondly, journalists don't usually have much of a stake, and I'd like to see how folks respond to passionate advocacy by people who care about the outcome, as in an actual trial, rather than attempts at neutral summarizing. Of course, it's fine if you want to read media reports linked to by the above sites.
(One potential problem is that the first site is organized like a blog or forum, and thus it is hard to find a quick summary of the case there. [EDIT: Be sure to look at the category links on the right side of the page to find the arguments.] If you think it necessary, refer to the ever-changing Wikipedia article, which at the moment of writing seems a bit more favorable to the prosecution. [EDIT: I'm no longer sure that's true.] [EDIT: Now I think it's true again, the article having apparently changed some more. So there's really no telling. Be warned.])
After you do this reading, I'd like to know:
1. Your probability estimate that Amanda Knox is guilty.
2. Your probability estimate that Raffaele Sollecito is guilty.
3. Your probability estimate that Rudy Guede is guilty.
4. How much you think your opinion will turn out to coincide with mine.
Feel free to elaborate on your reasoning to whatever degree you like.
One request: don't look at others' comments until you've done the experiment yourself!
For those whose familiarity with the case is moderate or high:
I'd like to know, as of right now:
1. Your probability estimate that Amanda Knox is guilty.
2. Your probability estimate that Raffaele Sollecito is guilty.
3. Your probability estimate that Rudy Guede is guilty.
4. How much you think your opinion will turn out to coincide with mine.
5. From what sources you've gotten the info you've used to arrive at these estimates.
Then, if possible, do the experiment described above for those with little familiarity, and report any shifts in your estimates.
Again, everyone should avoid looking at others' responses before giving their own feedback. Also, don't forget to identify your prior level of familiarity!
If the level of participation warrants it, I'll post my own thoughts (and reaction to the feedback here) in a later post. (Edit: That post can be found here.)