I didn't know anything about this case until I read this post.

My first impression: Wow, there sure is a lot of information on what a nice person Meredith Kercher was on that one site, and what a nice person Amanda Knox is on that other site. (The latter is at least potentially relevant, if you think a nasty person is more likely to kill someone.)

Anyway: Knox : ~35%; Sollecito : ~35%; Guede : ~95%. And I'd say it's about 60% that all of these probabilities are on the same side of 50% as yours.

(I had a bunch of information here on how I came to my opinion, but I don't think it's really important. Suffice it to say that the evidence I've seen against Ms. Knox and Mr. Sollecito is pretty terrible, but the evidence I haven't seen may be much better.)

Anyway, if those are the best, clearest sources available to me then I am pretty doubtful of my ability to form a useful opinion on this case at all.