I agree with Eliezer but like Maxwell's point about assigning extra probability to Knox and Sollecito because the guilty argument was so poorly formated. "She was convicted but I don't get why, perhaps I don't understand this."

That said I think 15% or less more then accounts for this uncertainty. I gave Knox a 6% probability.

Side note, I am surprised that more people are not assigning probability to the chance that none of them did it.