As many of you probably know, in an Italian court early last weekend, two young students, Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito, were convicted of killing another young student, Meredith Kercher, in a horrific way in November of 2007. (A third person, Rudy Guede, was convicted earlier.)
If you aren't familiar with the case, don't go reading about it just yet. Hang on for just a moment.
If you are familiar, that's fine too. This post is addressed to readers of all levels of acquaintance with the story.
What everyone should know right away is that the verdict has been extremely controversial. Strong feelings have emerged, even involving national tensions (Knox is American, Sollecito Italian, and Kercher British, and the crime and trial took place in Italy). The circumstances of the crime involve sex. In short, the potential for serious rationality failures in coming to an opinion on a case like this is enormous.
Now, as it happens, I myself have an opinion. A rather strong one, in fact. Strong enough that I caught myself thinking that this case -- given all the controversy surrounding it -- might serve as a decent litmus test in judging the rationality skills of other people. Like religion, or evolution -- except less clichéd (and cached) and more down-and-dirty.
Of course, thoughts like that can be dangerous, as I quickly recognized. The danger of in-group affective spirals looms large. So before writing up that Less Wrong post adding my-opinion-on-the-guilt-or-innocence-of-Amanda-Knox-and-Raffaele-Sollecito to the List of Things Every Rational Person Must Believe, I decided it might be useful to find out what conclusion(s) other aspiring rationalists would (or have) come to (without knowing my opinion).
So that's what this post is: a survey/experiment, with fairly specific yet flexible instructions (which differ slightly depending on how much you know about the case already).
For those whose familiarity with the case is low:
I'm going to give you two websites advocating a position, one strongly in favor of the verdict, the other strongly opposed. Your job will be to browse around these sites to learn info about the case, as much as you need to in order to arrive at a judgment. The order, manner, and quantity of browsing will be left up to you -- though I would of course like to know how much you read in your response.
1. Site arguing defendants are guilty.
2. Site arguing defendants are innocent.
I've chosen these particular sites because they seemed to contain the best combination of fierceness of advocacy and quantity of information on their respective sides that I could find.
If you find better summaries, or think that these choices reflect a bias or betray my own opinion, by all means let me know. I'm specifically avoiding referring you to media reports, however, for a couple of reasons. First, I've noticed that reports often contain factual inaccuracies (necessarily, because they contradict each other). Secondly, journalists don't usually have much of a stake, and I'd like to see how folks respond to passionate advocacy by people who care about the outcome, as in an actual trial, rather than attempts at neutral summarizing. Of course, it's fine if you want to read media reports linked to by the above sites.
(One potential problem is that the first site is organized like a blog or forum, and thus it is hard to find a quick summary of the case there. [EDIT: Be sure to look at the category links on the right side of the page to find the arguments.] If you think it necessary, refer to the ever-changing Wikipedia article, which at the moment of writing seems a bit more favorable to the prosecution. [EDIT: I'm no longer sure that's true.] [EDIT: Now I think it's true again, the article having apparently changed some more. So there's really no telling. Be warned.])
After you do this reading, I'd like to know:
1. Your probability estimate that Amanda Knox is guilty.
2. Your probability estimate that Raffaele Sollecito is guilty.
3. Your probability estimate that Rudy Guede is guilty.
4. How much you think your opinion will turn out to coincide with mine.
Feel free to elaborate on your reasoning to whatever degree you like.
One request: don't look at others' comments until you've done the experiment yourself!
For those whose familiarity with the case is moderate or high:
I'd like to know, as of right now:
1. Your probability estimate that Amanda Knox is guilty.
2. Your probability estimate that Raffaele Sollecito is guilty.
3. Your probability estimate that Rudy Guede is guilty.
4. How much you think your opinion will turn out to coincide with mine.
5. From what sources you've gotten the info you've used to arrive at these estimates.
Then, if possible, do the experiment described above for those with little familiarity, and report any shifts in your estimates.
Again, everyone should avoid looking at others' responses before giving their own feedback. Also, don't forget to identify your prior level of familiarity!
If the level of participation warrants it, I'll post my own thoughts (and reaction to the feedback here) in a later post. (Edit: That post can be found here.)
Would anyone actually be up for discussing the specifics of the case? (I don't know why but I find myself oddly interested in this case.)
As far as I can tell, the biggest pro-defendant evidence is that there is no major DNA evidence of Sollecito and Knox in the room where murder took place. We are told that there is a bra clasp with Sollecito's DNA and a knife that has both Amanda's and Kercher's DNA - both of these DNA traces are 'weak' in the sense that they are not that obvious, require a hefty search and are hard to see in lab. On the other hand, there are 'strong' traces of Guede's DNA in the victim's blood and in the room.
So, the first thing that worries me is that if it were a crime committed by three people, why would you have one person's DNA everywhere in the room and yet two others' only faintly there?
Again, this is the strongest pro-innocent (for Knox and Sollecito) argument that I have - and the one that convinces me most likely that Sollecito and Knox haven't done it.
I don't know - can anyone else site cases in which there was a group murder and yet only a single person left behind 'strong' traces of DNA? Maybe this isn't so unusual after all.
On the pro-guilty side, I must admit that I find Knox's and Sollecito's behavior the morning after the murder and during the investigation a bit strange. If 'Meredith was [her] friend', as Amanda Knox says in her trial, why were she doing cart-wheels during the investigation the morning after the murder? Shouldn't she be distraught and upset like all of other Meredith Kercher's friends? Accuse me of the mind projection fallacy but I feel like I would be distraught (and in a bad mood) even if the victim wasn't someone I knew.
But again, strange behavior isn't really an evidence. It's just something that makes one suspicious and raises uncertainty.
I can't find that many pro-guilty arguments. There are some tidbits that have a lot of uncertainty in them: i.e. Sollecito (allegedly) bought cleaning supplies the night of the murder allegedly again to clean up the murder mess, Sollecito claimed to be using the Internet at the time of the murder but his ISP records indicate otherwise, a woman claims to have heard three people running down that street that night.. etc. None of them as strong to make a case.
Besides these, a few other thoughts:
I really don't know how Sollecito and Knox got linked to this murder. How did they get dragged into this in the first place? Is there really evidence for the fact that it was a satanic sex-orgy gone wrong as the prosecutor claims it is? I mean, this satanic sex-orgy idea seems to be the prosecutor's imagination - there is no evidence for it.
Also, supposing Guede did it alone, would there be additional penalty or a reduction in penalty for him if he were to simply confess?
This whole thing seems to be like a backlash of conservative Italians' against whom they deem the immoral, selfish and arrogant youth. I have a hunch that the Italian prosecutor wants to punish Sollecito and Knox for a lifestyle he considers wrong.
I don't know what anyone else feels but the uncertainty of the case is somewhat disturbing. I wish there was a knockdown evidence and I could know the truth and be done with it instead of this restless search. Any else feeling that way?
Actually she was doing Yoga to calm herself. No lie.