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gwern comments on You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event - Less Wrong
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What makes you think that Sollecito is more likely to be guilty than Knox, and possibly more than 15x likely? (Which is quite the difference.)
What likely scenarios are you envisioning that have Guede and Sollecito murdering her without Knox being involved? It seems to me that all the plausible or presented scenarios have Sollecito & Knox acting in concert or in some way covering up for the other, and so their guilts would be closely linked.
Simple. Sollecito's DNA was found there, but not Knox's. I think it highly unlikely that the DNA has any link to the actual murder, but its presence justifies an allowance of probability mass.
Less than 0.1 and 0.15 are both very low probabilities.
Ahhhh... 0.15 isn't 15x 0.1
It's probably justified simply by priors re male/female committing rape/murder
<0.1 includes values like 0.00000001, y'know. So technically I'm not wrong... But you're right, I saw .1 and .15 and forgot that that was 1.5x, not 15x. (That would require .01)