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JamesAndrix comments on You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event - Less Wrong
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For those of you who were not familiar with the case, which side's arguments did you read first?
Did it feel like this order influenced your reasoning or final judgment?
(I read pro-guilt ideas first, and feel now that this ordering contributed to my judgment that Knox and Sollecito are guilty. I wonder how conviction rates would change in the US if we let the defense go first, i.e. what are the relative influence values of the right to speak first vs. last?)
I read 'friends of amanda' first, and was definite biased towards her innocence and guede's guilt for much of the rest of my reading. I didn't find anything particularly compelling against knox. The last thing I looked at was the wikipedia article, which knocked down my confidence in guede's guilt a lot. Overall, I think I compensated for the first impression I got.
I'm not so sure I compensated for the fact that the pro-guilt site was stupidly 'think of the poor murdered victim, there has to be justice, and by justice we mean guilty verdicts.' The pro innocence side definitely struck me as more rational.
This.
I was thoroughly annoyed by the sites layout and structure. If your main focus is on pictures of the victim and youtube videos, you don't really have a lot of arguments.
Friends of Amanda looks a lot more professional and the main points are much more condensed.
Estimates at three at night, very tired but sober. First tried to read the pro- and contra-sites, but I was too confused by the layouts and didn't know where to start. Then went on reading WP article and was pretty sure about Guede being the sole perpetrator. Read the other sites again and found the guilty-side very unconvincing, the not-guilty-side much better. The not-guilty-side reminded me specifically of the holocaust deniers tactics which I know very well.
Couldn't force myself to read for longer than 30 minutes in total because I am very tired, might read something tomorrow but not expecting to change my opinion at all.
Knox guilty: 25% Raffaele: 25% Guede: 75% Agreement: 60%
After reading the comments, my estimates changed to 10/10/90
I hope this case goes to a European court or something. It really is a shame.