gwern comments on You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event - Less Wrong

31 Post author: komponisto 09 December 2009 04:25AM

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Comment author: gwern 10 December 2009 10:56:43PM 0 points [-]

If the base rate is low enough and base rate neglect is common enough, maybe you really can confidently claim that Knox is innocent even though she was convicted given only the fact that Guede is guilty and plausibly could have done it himself.

I'd love to see an article doing the research to make this claim. At the very least, I'd be entertained.