Nanani comments on You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event - Less Wrong

31 Post author: komponisto 09 December 2009 04:25AM

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Comment author: Nanani 11 December 2009 01:26:13AM *  0 points [-]

What makes you think that Sollecito is more likely to be guilty than Knox

Simple. Sollecito's DNA was found there, but not Knox's. I think it highly unlikely that the DNA has any link to the actual murder, but its presence justifies an allowance of probability mass.

Less than 0.1 and 0.15 are both very low probabilities.