I was aware of the case before, but hadn't looked into it in any detail. My reaction to the sites is that the site arguing innocence seems to be presenting facts and showing contradictions in the other side's arguments. I couldn't find any consistent argument on the other side. There were many scenarios, with inconsistent adherence to the facts, lots of innuendo and plausibility arguments for particular claims, but no coherent story.

1. Your probability estimate that Amanda Knox is guilty. less than 30%
2. Your probability estimate that Raffaele Sollecito is guilty. less than 30%
3. Your probability estimate that Rudy Guede is guilty. more than 40%
4. How much you think your opinion will turn out to coincide with mine. It seems likely. more than 75% overlap, if that means anything.