wnoise comments on You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event - Less Wrong
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Not very familiar -- had heard about it, but no real details.
I'll echo all those that have raised concerns about prosecutorial and police misconduct, releasing details that later turned out not to be true, or were entirely irrelevant. The group sex games focus also reminds me strongly of many other moral panic cases where people flip out for no good reason.
I don't find the "cleaning" hypothesis very well supported -- it's hard to selectively clean, which would be necessary to eliminate all of their own evidence, but still leave so much Guede evidence.
overall: P(Knox) ~ 0.02 P(Sollecito) ~ 0.02 P(Guede) ~ 0.98