As many of you probably know, in an Italian court early last weekend, two young students, Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito, were convicted of killing another young student, Meredith Kercher, in a horrific way in November of 2007. (A third person, Rudy Guede, was convicted earlier.)
If you aren't familiar with the case, don't go reading about it just yet. Hang on for just a moment.
If you are familiar, that's fine too. This post is addressed to readers of all levels of acquaintance with the story.
What everyone should know right away is that the verdict has been extremely controversial. Strong feelings have emerged, even involving national tensions (Knox is American, Sollecito Italian, and Kercher British, and the crime and trial took place in Italy). The circumstances of the crime involve sex. In short, the potential for serious rationality failures in coming to an opinion on a case like this is enormous.
Now, as it happens, I myself have an opinion. A rather strong one, in fact. Strong enough that I caught myself thinking that this case -- given all the controversy surrounding it -- might serve as a decent litmus test in judging the rationality skills of other people. Like religion, or evolution -- except less clichéd (and cached) and more down-and-dirty.
Of course, thoughts like that can be dangerous, as I quickly recognized. The danger of in-group affective spirals looms large. So before writing up that Less Wrong post adding my-opinion-on-the-guilt-or-innocence-of-Amanda-Knox-and-Raffaele-Sollecito to the List of Things Every Rational Person Must Believe, I decided it might be useful to find out what conclusion(s) other aspiring rationalists would (or have) come to (without knowing my opinion).
So that's what this post is: a survey/experiment, with fairly specific yet flexible instructions (which differ slightly depending on how much you know about the case already).
For those whose familiarity with the case is low:
I'm going to give you two websites advocating a position, one strongly in favor of the verdict, the other strongly opposed. Your job will be to browse around these sites to learn info about the case, as much as you need to in order to arrive at a judgment. The order, manner, and quantity of browsing will be left up to you -- though I would of course like to know how much you read in your response.
1. Site arguing defendants are guilty.
2. Site arguing defendants are innocent.
I've chosen these particular sites because they seemed to contain the best combination of fierceness of advocacy and quantity of information on their respective sides that I could find.
If you find better summaries, or think that these choices reflect a bias or betray my own opinion, by all means let me know. I'm specifically avoiding referring you to media reports, however, for a couple of reasons. First, I've noticed that reports often contain factual inaccuracies (necessarily, because they contradict each other). Secondly, journalists don't usually have much of a stake, and I'd like to see how folks respond to passionate advocacy by people who care about the outcome, as in an actual trial, rather than attempts at neutral summarizing. Of course, it's fine if you want to read media reports linked to by the above sites.
(One potential problem is that the first site is organized like a blog or forum, and thus it is hard to find a quick summary of the case there. [EDIT: Be sure to look at the category links on the right side of the page to find the arguments.] If you think it necessary, refer to the ever-changing Wikipedia article, which at the moment of writing seems a bit more favorable to the prosecution. [EDIT: I'm no longer sure that's true.] [EDIT: Now I think it's true again, the article having apparently changed some more. So there's really no telling. Be warned.])
After you do this reading, I'd like to know:
1. Your probability estimate that Amanda Knox is guilty.
2. Your probability estimate that Raffaele Sollecito is guilty.
3. Your probability estimate that Rudy Guede is guilty.
4. How much you think your opinion will turn out to coincide with mine.
Feel free to elaborate on your reasoning to whatever degree you like.
One request: don't look at others' comments until you've done the experiment yourself!
For those whose familiarity with the case is moderate or high:
I'd like to know, as of right now:
1. Your probability estimate that Amanda Knox is guilty.
2. Your probability estimate that Raffaele Sollecito is guilty.
3. Your probability estimate that Rudy Guede is guilty.
4. How much you think your opinion will turn out to coincide with mine.
5. From what sources you've gotten the info you've used to arrive at these estimates.
Then, if possible, do the experiment described above for those with little familiarity, and report any shifts in your estimates.
Again, everyone should avoid looking at others' responses before giving their own feedback. Also, don't forget to identify your prior level of familiarity!
If the level of participation warrants it, I'll post my own thoughts (and reaction to the feedback here) in a later post. (Edit: That post can be found here.)
Familiarity pretty good - I've read the Wiki page, revisited several articles from when the murder was first discovered and I watched Sky news the day of the verdict and saw/heard Prof of Criminology, feminist journalist, UK barrister and two Italian barristers. I frequently search the web, hence I found this site.
(I don't understand the up/down system.)
I find the logic of the murder disturbing - if the murder was a game gone wrong, then it was not premeditated, so unlikely gloves were worn. If bleach was used to clean, then why was Guede's DNA all over the body and room? The only DNA evidence for Raffaelle is highly suspect and a physical impossibility to leave DNA only in that one place I would think. That really is the beginning and the end of it.
The Prof of Criminology's view I have to take seriously. But, in saying that Amanda's diary reads like a gap-year Rosemary West he failed to draw contrasts as well as comparisons. Rosemary West was severely abused from early chidlhood, she did not study languages or develop an interest in creative writing.
I have an alternative scenario - a young woman from a comfortable secure All-American upbringing, who has no idea of the level of corruption and politicking in the world, visits Italy and discovers the magic of old Europe and the unexpected appeal of herself to Italian men - the intoxicating culture of Italy, the constant calls of 'Ciao Bella' from men lounging in doorways - and, being naive and unwordly, behaves carelessly and without circumspection not realising that beneath the relaxed veneer of Italian culture lies a strict code of conduct, especially for women. Amanda has behaved exactly as you would expect of an innocent girl with that background - she simply could not comprehend that she could be convicted for a crime that she did not commit and didn't take her interview with the police seriously.
Given the above scenario, when asked to imagine what might have happened that night, Amanda may well have enjoyed being able to apply her obvious interest in macarbre story telling. I myself wonder at the violence depicted in much fiction but being able to express the human condition in fiction is important and we should not rush to criminalise the use of the macarbre in fiction.
I don't want to cast aspersions but I found it very strange that Meredith's parents did not talk at the press conference and I started to find their silence spooky rather than dignified. I also think that Meredith had made it clear to her family that she did not at all like her flatmate's arrogant American 'no one can touch me' attitude. Supposing the Italian barrister dangled the potential for millions in compensation in front of them? How would they feel?
And why does Meredith's mother now say that querying the verdict is making her unhappy? Would she not care if an innocent went to jail? And surely the pain of her daughter's death is not going to disappear from her mind even when the story disappears from the media? It starts to sound more like a desire for revenge than for justice.
Finally, I've worked with about a dozen Italian professionals and was astounded by their anti-American feeling. There have been US bases in Italy since WWII and Italy led the anti-Iraq war movement with their colourful Pace flags.
I don't know what Amanda and Raffaelle were up to that night. I think they were in the first bloom of attraction to each other, on drugs (perhaps more than just cannabis), and not being particularly sensible. But the case is not beyond reasonable doubt, neither is accusing the other, and they have served 2 years in jail already.
PS. this site is a very welcome find - it seems that many, many people these days prefer 'opinion' to logic or standards - I call it the Strictly Syndrome - a cult of personality combined with sectarian affiliations - it's really quite scary to hear how little people care about evidence, universal standards or intelligent debate nowadays. Bring back the Enlightenment, I've had enough of postmodernism!
Erica Are you being ironic?, "But...she did not study languages or develop an interest in creative writing."