I've looked at this twice - first after reading the friends of amanda blog, wikipedia, and scanning the justice for meredith blog.

My initial probabilities were: P(AK=guilty) = .55, P(RS=guilty)=.5, P(RG=guilty)=.999, P(views coincide)=.5. Having read a few comments I initially revised the first two probabilities down - I realised I was guilty of having given a lot of weight to the rape story, and not given weight to the improbability of the "weird sex" story.

Having read more I find it hard to be sure of anything - it seems to be next to impossible to get any unbiased information on this (wikipedia contradicts friends of amanda, e.g. on the washing machine and the cleaning operation which are crucial). I would also be astonished if the Italian legal system could encourage such a high-profile miscarriage to take place. Italy is one of the most developed countries in the world. While they do have a mad president, some might say the same about some American presidents. And I have seen clear one-sided bias against the Italian legal system (e.g. the sashes worn by the jury - standard dress for jurists in Italy)

EDIT: Looked at this again. I've got to revise them to .99, .99, .999, .9 Some excerpts from the evidence on this blog - the evidence that FoA discounts looks very real to me. The only thing I find really weird is how the three could have got together. http://boards.insessiontrials.com/showpost.php?p=13695224&postcount=718