timtyler comments on What Are Probabilities, Anyway? - Less Wrong

22 Post author: Wei_Dai 11 December 2009 12:25AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (78)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Zack_M_Davis 11 December 2009 03:09:58AM 7 points [-]

You care equally for your selves that see heads and your selves that see tails. If you don't care what happens to you after you see heads, then you would assign probability one to tails. Of course, you'd be wrong in about half the worlds, but hey, no skin off your nose. You're the one who sees tails. Those other guys ... they don't matter.

Comment author: timtyler 12 December 2009 09:10:56AM *  3 points [-]

A bizarre interpretation.

For example, caring about "living until tomorrow" does not normally mean assigning a zero probability to death in the interim. If anything that would tend to make you fearless - indifferent to whether you stepped in front of a bus or not - the very opposite of what we normally mean by "caring" about some outcome.